Japan PMI "Strongest Since March": Does That Mean "Strong"?

The spin in media reporting, in both directions (but typically bullish), is pervasive.

Here is a case in point. Markit reports Japan PMI Points to Strongest Manufacturing Expansion Since March.

Does "strongest since March" mean "strong"?

Here are the Key Points:

• Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 52.4 (50.5 in July). Modest improvement in growth registered in August.
• Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 53.2 (49.8 in July). Output increased at solid pace.

A few charts will put this into perspective.



click on chart for sharper image

It seems to me that Japan has been treading water above and below the 50-50 expansion-contraction line for years (mostly below since 2007).

Will this surge prove to be more lasting than any of the others?

If so, please don't credit Abenomics. Instead, I propose the recovery is due to trend exhaustion, in spite of Abenomics.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com